PENNSYLVANIA  – AT 11:45 P.M. ET:  We are obviously following very closely the race in the 18th C.D. in western Pennsylvania. 

With 99% of the ballots counted, Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone by four tenths of one percentage point. Almost a dead heat.

Absentee ballots may well decide the race.   Looking at what is still out, we'd have to come to the conclusion that Conor Lamb will probably squeeze through to a very narrow victory.  I was just surfing the news services, and that seems to be the conventional view. 

Donald Trump carried the district by about 20 points in 2016, so it was widely expected in some circles that Republican Saccone would coast to a comfortable victory.  But wait a minute.  Not so fast.  The 18th is actually a Democratic district, but made up heavily of Reagan Democrats, the kind who've believed, over the years, that the national Democratic Party has abandoned them.  They like Trump and favor his policies.

But the GOP put up the lackluster Saccone, who is kind of an old-fashioned Republican with little popular appeal.  His magnetism might be able to pick up a hairpin, but little else. By contrast, the Dems ran a young, dynamic, pro-gun, anti-Pelosi military veteran who often sounded more Republican than Democrat.  Lamb didn't even acknowledge the national party.  He also had union support, which was crucial.  He connected with the unions, which were once the backbone of the Democratic Party. 

So I wouldn't read too much into this, except that the result is a reminder of how tough it will be for the GOP to retain control of the House this November.  The party that does not control the presidency normally makes gains in the first midyear election following the election of the president.   And the media will be the Democrats' cheerleading squad.

March 13,  2018